The shapes of an epidemic: using Functional Data Analysis to characterize Covid-19 in Italy
Jacopo Di Iorio - Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
The Institute of Economics will hold a meeting of its Seminar Series on Tuesday, October 13, 2020: Jacopo Di Iorio from Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna will present the paper: The shapes of an epidemic: using Functional Data Analysis to characterize Covid-19 in Italy.
The authors investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates, pinpointing significant trends exploiting information in curves and shapes with Functional Data Analysis techniques. These depict two starkly different epidemics; an "exponential" one unfolding in Lombardia and the worst hit areas of the north, and a milder, "flat(tened)" one in the rest of the country – including Veneto, where cases appeared concurrently with Lombardia but aggressive testing was implemented early on. The authors find that mobility and positivity can predict COVID-19 mortality, also when controlling for relevant covariates. Among the latter, primary care appears to mitigate mortality, and contacts in hospitals, schools and work places to aggravate it. The techniques the authors describe could capture additional and potentially sharper signals if applied to richer data.
Here you can find the paper.
External participants are welcome to join online at the following link. However, they need to contact the organisers via email to grant access the seminar.