The epidemic spread potential under physical distancing interventions

The Institute of Economics will hold a meeting of its Seminar Series on Wednesday, October 14, 2020: Fabio Vanni from the Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) will present the paper: The epidemic spread potential under physical distancing interventions.

Abstract:

In combining the renewal equation with a kinetic collisional model for infection propagation, it is possible to derive a set of predictive equations for the short-to-medium-term behavior of an epidemic. These tools allowed us to disentangle the effects of population mobility, physical proximity, test&trace and depletion of susceptibles. We check our theoretical framework using real-world data on physical distancing with two different data repositories, obtaining consistent results. Knowing the effects of each of these components of the response of the government and society to the CoViD-19 epidemic should allow for less costly and more effective strategies for defeating epidemics. In particular, the collision model approach to estimation of infection risk should allow local, regional, and national governments to better assess the continuing threat of CoViD-19 to the public welfare.

The seminar will be held in online format and can be accessed at the following link. External participants should send an email to the organizers to grant access to the seminar.