Baroclinic Boogie: Dancing with Extreme Weather Predictions in Africa

Scheduled for Wednesday, October 23, at 5:30 p.m., is the seminar “Baroclinic Boogie: Dancing with Extreme Weather Predictions in Africa” with Marcello Petitta, professor at Roma Tre University.

Abstract

This talk explores recent advancements in seasonal forecasting for Africa, with a particular emphasis on extreme events and precipitation prediction in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Drawing from two studies under the H2020 FOCUS Africa project, we'll look at both the challenges and opportunities in enhancing climate services for this area.

The first study looks at how seasonal forecast models represent mid-latitude weather patterns, pointing out differences between model predictions and real data in the Southern Hemisphere. It shows how these inaccuracies in energy distribution in the atmosphere lead to uncertainty in predicting rainfall, especially during extreme weather events. The second study introduces a new method to correct biases in forecasts. It improves on the usual quantile mapping technique by using a more advanced statistical model for extreme events. This approach makes seasonal forecasts more accurate for temperature and rainfall extremes in the SADC region, as shown by comparisons with ERA5 data.

We’ll explore the implications of these findings for climate services in Africa, emphasizing the importance of accurate seasonal forecasts for managing climate-related risks and supporting decision-making in sectors such as agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness. The talk will conclude by discussing future directions for research and the potential for further improvements in seasonal forecasting capabilities for the African continent.