Cyclone Models and Anticipatory Action: Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty
The seminar 'Cyclone Models and Anticipatory Action: Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty' by Prof Roman Frigg will take place on 5 May 2026 at 2 pm in Pisa (Conference Room, Palazzo Pilo Boyl). The seminar is organized by the Interdisciplinary Research Centre on Sustainability and Climate.
Abstract
We present an approach to decision-making involving multiple models in situations of severe uncertainty and show how this approach can be employed to develop a confidence-sensitive decision support tool for anticipatory humanitarian action. We apply the tool to the case of Cyclone Kenneth, which made landfall in Mozambique in April 2019. Comparing the level and timing of the alerts that were actually triggered with the alerts recommended by the tool shows that even a moderately an uncertainty-intolerant decision-maker would have acted earlier had they used the tool, thereby considerably reducing the cyclone’s impact.
Bio
Roman Frigg is Professor of Philosophy in the Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and he currently serves as Head of Department. He is the winner of the Friedrich Wilhelm Bessel Research Award of the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. His research interests lie in general philosophy of science and philosophy of physics, and includes themes linked to scientific representation, statistical mechanics, chaos, climate change, scientific realism, computer simulations, reductionism, confirmation, and the relation between art and science. His current work focuses on the nature of scientific models and theories, the foundations of statistical mechanics, and decision making under uncertainty.